ArticleIn 2025, Aii's Low Carbon Thermal Roadmap identified steam-generating heat pumps as the most promising pathway to cost and emissions reductions in the textile sector — with commercial viability projected from 2030 across India, China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Indonesia. This white paper documents what we have learned in the year since that finding, and what needs to happen before 2030 for that potential to be realized.
The most commercially mature steam heat pumps currently deliver around 120°C. That is sufficient for a meaningful share of textile processes - drying, printing, some dyeing - but falls short of the higher-temperature demands of many dyeing processes, stenter heat setting, and specialty finishing. Vendors offering 150°C+ systems exist, but global installations in all sectors remain limited. Until we have proven, stable performance data at those temperatures, broad adoption will remain out of reach.
Heat pumps are not plug-and-play; they require custom engineering, deep knowledge of site-specific waste heat profiles, and integration expertise that most vendors are only beginning to develop. Poor system design leads to oversized equipment, underperforming assets, and damaged confidence in the technology.
The economics compound the challenge. Across 17 textile manufacturers screened in India, China, and Vietnam, the average electricity-to-fuel price ratio was 4.02, far above the threshold for an unassisted business case. Combined with transformer capacity limits, 5–8 year payback periods, and a supplier base accustomed to a 2- to 3-year ROI approval, the commercial gap is significant. Grant funding and brand-backed financing are not optional extras; they are currently a necessity.
Equally important is what we call the partial electrification reality. With commercial steam heat pumps capped at around 2 MW and average boiler sizes in our survey at nearly 18 MW, full electrification of a typical textile facility is not a near-term prospect. Meaningful decarbonization in this decade will come from targeted, process-specific installations, not whole-boiler or whole-facility transformation.
This makes steam optimization and de-steaming a strategic priority, not a secondary workstream. Factories that reduce their steam load and lower required temperatures create the conditions in which heat pumps perform best: smaller systems, better Coefficient of Performance (COPs), shorter paybacks. Aii is treating steam optimization and de-steaming as preparation for electrification.
What we believe needs to happen by 2030 for commercially mature 150°C steam heat pump systems is an increase in vendor engineering capability; a growing base of installed cases; and sustained brand support to close the financial gap for early adopters. The gap between what is theoretically possible and what is deployable today is significant, and it is not closing on its own.
Aii's role is to accelerate this work through feasibility studies, grant-funded pilots, technical assistance, and industry alignment. This paper is part of that work.
